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Saturday, December 15, 2007

India GDP Q3 2007

I think it is important here to note right at the outset that what the Indian Central Statistical Office calls Q2 is in fact what everyone else knows as Q3 (ie July to September). Apart from that everything is more or less in order, so.... according to the CSO:


(a) At constant (1999-2000) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices for Q2 of 2007-08 is estimated at Rs. 7,10,578 crore, as against Rs. 6,52,450 crore in Q2 of 2006-07, showing a growth rate of 8.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

3. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2007-08 over Q2 of 2006-07 are, ‘mining & quarrying’ at 7.7 per cent, ‘manufacturing’ at 8.6 per cent, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 7.3 per cent, ‘construction’ at 11.1 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 11.4 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.6 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 7.8 per cent. The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ is estimated at 3.6 per cent in this period.

4. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q2 of 2007-08, the crops rice, coarse cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2007-08 recorded growth rates of zero per cent, 3.5 per cent, and 16.2 per cent, respectively over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds increased by 15.7 per cent during the Kharif season of 2007-08, while the production of cotton and sugarcane is estimated to grow at 1.1 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively during the agriculture year 2007-08.

5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 8.1 per cent, 8.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2007-08, as compared to the growth rates of 2.6 per cent, 13.0 per cent and 8.0 per cent in these sectors in Q2 of 2006-07. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 9.9 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2007-08, as against the growth rates of 11.1 per cent and 11.2 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2006-07.

6. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 7.4 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2007-08. In the transport and communication sectors, the production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation, passengers handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of (-) 0.2 per cent, 13.2 per cent, 22.1 per cent, 14.7 per cent and 46.3 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2007-08 over Q2 of 2006-07. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 23.9 per cent, and 21.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2007-08 over Q2 of 2006-07.

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