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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
India Risk Elements
According to a recent assessment by the Economist Intelligence Unit the risk situation in India looks like this:
Banking sector risk
Stable: Bank credit is rising as a percentage of GDP. An increase in household
defaults remains possible, especially given the central bank!s maintenance of
current interest rates.
Political risk
Because both the government and its leftist supporters have compromised"at
least in the short term"on some of the issues that divide them, the prospect of
an early general election has, for the time being, receded.
Economic structure risk
Although wholesale price inflation, targeted by the central bank, continues to
decline, rising oil prices are likely to increase pressure on both producer and
consumer prices.
Banking sector risk
Stable: Bank credit is rising as a percentage of GDP. An increase in household
defaults remains possible, especially given the central bank!s maintenance of
current interest rates.
Political risk
Because both the government and its leftist supporters have compromised"at
least in the short term"on some of the issues that divide them, the prospect of
an early general election has, for the time being, receded.
Economic structure risk
Although wholesale price inflation, targeted by the central bank, continues to
decline, rising oil prices are likely to increase pressure on both producer and
consumer prices.
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